Shrinking Colorado River Could Raise US Grocery Prices in 2025

Farmers relying on the Colorado River are raising the alarm as diminishing river flows threaten food supplies and could lead to increased U.S. grocery prices in 2025. With the current agreement regulating water usage expiring in 2026, the fate of this vital water source hangs in the balance. Agriculture claims around 80 percent of the river’s water, irrigating 15 percent of the nation’s farmland and producing 90 percent of its winter vegetables, according to the Feeding Ourselves Thirsty Report. In regions like the Imperial Valley in Southern California, which receives less than three inches of rainfall annually, yet produces much of the country’s winter produce, the shrinking river poses a direct threat. Sprinklers water a lettuce field in Holtville, California, on February 9, 2023. Agriculture uses a staggering 80 percent of Colorado River water. Sprinklers water a lettuce field in Holtville, California, on February 9, 2023. Agriculture uses a staggering 80 percent of Colorado River water. SANDY HUFFAKER/Getty Why This Matters The Colorado River fuels a substantial portion of the U.S. food supply, particularly during winter months. Farmers warn that dwindling water levels, coupled with increasing competition over limited resources, could lead to reduced crop diversity and higher grocery prices. What to Know The Colorado River is split between seven U.S. states and Mexico, with farmers in California’s Imperial Valley being among its largest users. Conservation efforts, such as installing drip irrigation and precision laser leveling, are underway, supported by the Imperial Irrigation District (IID)—the largest irrigation district in the nation. “We provide supplemental funding so they’re able to purchase drip systems and sprinkler systems, tap water return systems, all kinds of new technologies and precision laser leveling of the field that allow them to continue to farm the way they always farm, but just using less water,” Imperial Irrigation District (IID) district water manager Tina Shields told Fox Business. Newsweek contacted the IID via email for further comment. Meanwhile, reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead—essential for the river’s stability—remain precariously low, at just a third of their capacity. Although California has saved over 1.2 million acre-feet of water in two years (about a third of what farmers in the IID use in a year), the overall outlook remains uncertain. Bad rainfall or a contentious 2026 agreement could further jeopardize water availability. What Are People Saying Experts like Robert Glennon, Regents Professor Emeritus at the University of Arizona College of Law, remain cautiously optimistic. Glennon previously told Newsweek that the IID had formerly been “a difficult entity to negotiate with” but that “as the level in Lake Mead dropped in recent years, that created a plausible fear of hitting ‘dead pool,’ when no water would be released from Hoover Dam.” As a result, California and the IID have engaged more constructively with other Lower Basin states to conserve Colorado River water. Farmer Andrew Leimgruber looks over a field of lettuce with irrigation hoses in Holtville, California, on February 9, 2023. Decades of drought in the region are threatening food supplies across the U.S. Farmer Andrew Leimgruber looks over a field of lettuce with irrigation hoses in Holtville, California, on February 9, 2023. Decades of drought in the region are threatening food supplies across the U.S. SANDY HUFFAKER/Getty “Between November and March, a large majority of your lettuce, broccoli, carrots, all of your winter greens are coming from either the Imperial Valley or just across the Colorado River from us, Yuma, Arizona,” fourth-generation farmer Andrew Leimgruber told Fox Business. Stephen Benson of Benson Farms added: “One issue with lack of water is the lack of diversity in crops. Having that diversity enables us to keep pests under control.” What Happens Next With the Colorado River’s drought now spanning over 20 years, it looks unlikely that the climatic situation will improve as the planet becomes increasingly warm in years to come. In the short term, if rainfall and snowpack fall short, the river’s already fragile state could worsen. Negotiations on the 2026 agreement will play a pivotal role in determining water allocations moving forward. For consumers, the stakes are high. A continued water shortage or unfavorable agreement could result in lower production from farms in the region and higher prices across the U.S. next year. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Colorado River? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.