Russia Faces Exodus As Millions Could Be Poised To Leave Country

Vladimir Putin has given illegal migrants four months to get legal status as he issues a decree which could force many to leave the country in 2025. The Russian president signed a decree on December 30 which gives a deadline of April 30 for those who entered the country illegally to get their papers in order through health checks, paying off their debts and passing a Russian language, history and legal exam. They can also obtain legal status by signing a military contract which could make them available to fight against Ukraine in Putin’s full-scale invasion. The Russian government said in 2021 that there were more than one million illegal immigrants from former Soviet countries living in Russia. According to OECD figures from 2019 when Russia’s population was over 146 million, around seven percent of the population are illegal migrants, potentially putting many more at risk of deportation under Putin’s order. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin by email for comment. Russian police officers check men’s identities and work permits during a raid in Moscow in 2013. Putin signed a decree which will force illegal migrants in Russia to obtain legal status. Russian police officers check men’s identities and work permits during a raid in Moscow in 2013. Putin signed a decree which will force illegal migrants in Russia to obtain legal status. YEVGENY FELDMAN/Getty Images Why it matters The war in Ukraine has exacerbated an estimated labor shortage in Russia of 1.5 million people, due to high casualties, an exodus of skilled workers avoiding the draft and a more restrictive environment. Illegal migrants, a large proportion from ex-Soviet countries in Central Asia, form a key part of Russia’s economy, often working low-skilled industries. If they are forced to leave the country, or join the military, then Putin’s decree could add to the turbulence that Russia’s sanctions-hit economy faces. What to know Putin’s decree, signed on Monday, comes into force on New Year’s Day and states that migrants who are in the country illegally must leave the country or settle their legal status by April 30. Those wanting to stay will have to have their biometric data collected and undertake a medical examination which includes tests for drug use and the presence of diseases such as HIV. Exemptions are granted to those who sign up for the military although concessions do not apply to migrants “who pose a threat to the national security” of Russia, state news agency Tass reported. Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs will implement the decree while the health ministry will organize the medical examinations. Russian authorities have clamped down on migration following a terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall concert hall in the Moscow region, which killed 145 people, and injured around 500. An investigation concluded that the perpetrators were from Tajikistan. During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, Putin said his government had to look into migration policy, especially given the need for migrants to solve labor shortages hampering economic growth. But in its assessment of Putin’s latest decree, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Monday that going into the New Year, the Kremlin seems to be “prioritizing Russia’s force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages.” What people are saying Putin’s decree stated that illegal migrants “must independently leave the Russian Federation between January 1 and April 20 or settle their legal status.” The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said: “Putin’s decree will likely further exacerbate Russia’s ongoing labor shortages if a significant number of migrants who work in food service, transportation, and other low-skilled industries either leave Russia or forcibly join the Russian military.” What happens next The ISW said it is unclear if the decree will be enforced and much depends on whether labor market challenges are more important for the Kremlin than political pressure to kick out migrants. The Washington, DC think tank said that enforcing the decree would show that the Kremlin is prioritizing placating pro-war ultra-nationalists and security issues linked to reports of migrants committing crimes and terrorist acts than addressing economic issues. Not enforcing the decree would indicate Moscow is “more concerned with utilizing migrant labor to overcome Russia’s economic issues and labor shortages than messaging to the Kremlin’s ultranationalist constituency,” the ISW added.