Oregon Subsea Volcano: Can Science Predict When it Will Erupt?

An underwater volcano off Oregon’s coast is likely to erupt in 2025, according to scientists monitoring the situation. Axial Seamount—the most active volcano in the northeast Pacific Ocean—is located less than 300 miles off the coast of Oregon. It last erupted in 1998, 2011 and 2015. Now, with the seamount’s surface rising to 95 percent of its pre-2015 eruption level, researchers anticipate a new eruption within the next two years. “While there are no hazards to humans from eruptions at Axial, it is still an excellent natural laboratory for testing methods for eruption forecasting and learning how volcanoes work because it is frequently active,” William Chadwick, a geologist at Oregon State University, told Newsweek. A 3D map of Axial Seamount, 300 miles off the coast of Oregon. Scientists predict that it will erupt in 2025. A 3D map of Axial Seamount, 300 miles off the coast of Oregon. Scientists predict that it will erupt in 2025. Oregon State University How Many Submarine Volcanoes Are There? The ocean floor hosts a staggering number of volcanoes. According to Oregon State University, an estimated 4,000 volcanoes per million square kilometers populate the Pacific Ocean floor. Extrapolated across all the oceans, there may be over a million submarine volcanoes worldwide, with approximately 75,000 of them rising more than half a mile above the ocean floor. Submarine volcanoes like Axial Seamount are pivotal in understanding Earth’s volcanic activity, though many remain unexplored due to their inaccessibility. Why is the Axial Seamount the Most Monitored Underwater Volcano in the World? Axial Seamount stands out as the most heavily monitored submarine volcano globally. According to the U.S. Group on Earth Observations, this prominence arises from three key factors: it’s frequent eruptions, its relatively easy connectivity to shore via cables, allowing real-time data transmission, and its repetitive behavior before eruptions, which provides a rare opportunity to test predictive models. How Accurately Has Science Predicted Its Eruption in the Past? Scientists have successfully predicted eruptions at Axial Seamount in the past, most notably in 2011, marking the first accurate forecast of a submarine volcano’s eruption. At the time, Oregon State University said it confirmed that “Axial Seamount is an excellent location for state-of-the-art studies of active submarine volcanic processes and how they impact ocean physical, chemical, and biological environments.” However, predictions are not always straightforward. For instance, from 2015 to 2023, Axial’s inflation rate gradually slowed, making forecasting challenging. Since late 2023, the inflation rate has increased significantly, enabling scientists to forecast the next eruption between now and the end of 2025. What Are the Indicators of an Imminent Eruption? Volcanologists use a variety of indicators to predict eruptions. At Axial, a combination of ground inflation and seismicity offers clues as to when it might blow. Axial behaves like a balloon, inflating as magma accumulates beneath the surface. The volcano has re-inflated to over 95 percent of its pre-2015 eruption level. Alongside this, earthquake swarms, exceeding 500 per day at times, have signalled magma movement. Both indicators have been increasing exponentially, signalling an eruption is likely this year. Although these indicators improve predictions, they are not foolproof. As the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program notes on its website, monitoring-based forecasts remain imperfect and are often reliable only days before an eruption. How is This New Science Reducing Risk to Human Populations? While Axial Seamount itself poses no direct threat to human populations due to its remote location, studying it provides important insights for mitigating risks posed by terrestrial volcanoes. Submarine volcanoes like Axial help scientists refine models for forecasting eruptions, which can then be applied to land-based volcanoes that threaten lives and infrastructure. Monitoring techniques developed at Axial are advancing these efforts. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Axial’s study “may help provide insights not only into the workings of submarine volcanoes, but to their land-based cousins, which pose a greater threat to people.” Whether or not scientists have got it right this time remains to be seen. If they have, it will serve as a critical testing ground for lifesaving interventions on land. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about volcanic eruptions? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.