Mass Deportations Will Wreck Mexico’s Economy, Economist Warns

President-elect Donald Trump’s mass deportation policy will wreck Mexico’s economy, experts have warned. Why It Matters Trump has vowed to conduct the largest mass deportation program in U.S. history, shut down the CBP One app, end the catch-and-release policy and reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” program as part of his immigration agenda. His flagship immigration policy is part of an effort to “secure the border” and curb migration figures as well as stop the flow of drugs entering the country. People hold signs reading “Mass Deportation Now!” on the third day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump’s mass deportation policy will wreck Mexico’s economy, experts have warned. People hold signs reading “Mass Deportation Now!” on the third day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Donald Trump’s mass deportation policy will wreck Mexico’s economy, experts have warned. Alex Wong/Getty What To Know A key aspect of Trump’s immigration policy is the removal of millions of undocumented immigrants. He called for the deportation of individuals in the U.S. illegally, with a particular focus on those who had committed crimes. However, critics have pointed out that Trump’s mass deportation proposal will be a huge “blow” to Mexico’s economy, according to Ismael Plascencia López, a specialist with the Northwest Mexico Federation of Economists. Experts estimate that Mexico will need to invest millions of dollars to provide care, food, housing and transportation for deported migrants, as well as for those arriving from other countries. Banxico, Mexico’s National Bank, reported that migrants in the U.S. sent $63.3 billion to Mexico in 2023. From January to October of this year alone, the amount has already reached nearly $55 billion. Meanwhile, mass deportations could cost the U.S. a staggering $315 billion for a one-time effort, according to the American Immigration Council. The long-term cost of deporting 1 million people per year could average $88 billion annually, totaling $967.9 billion over a decade. This would require a vast expansion of detention and court systems. According to the American Business Immigration Coalition, agricultural output will fall between $30 and $60 billion if Trump’s flagship policy is enacted. What People Are Saying López told Border Report: “They’re talking about deporting 11 to 13 million undocumented migrants now in the United States, it seems like an impossible task. But, if only 1 to 2 million people get deported, it would still be a huge strike on the Mexican economy.” “It’s going to be a blow just in terms of the number of people sent here, but what about all those countries that refuse to take in their own people? They will likely end up in Mexico, you have to care for them as well.” Ernesto Castañeda, Director at Immigration Lab and the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, and Professor at the College of Arts & Sciences and the School of International Service at American University, told Newsweek: “Trump’s promised mass deportations would impact Mexico negatively in the short term because of a decrease in the money Mexicans working in the U.S. send to their families in Mexico. “Remittances to Mexico in 2024 surpassed 68 billion, according to the World Bank. But Mexico’s population growth has decreased, the minimum wage has increased and, according to official estimates, unemployment rates in Mexico at 2.67 percent are lower than in the United States. “So, the extra workers would strengthen the Mexican economy in the middle and long term. Mexico is currently the 12th-largest economy in the world and, with return migrants, deportees and their families, expats and international immigrants, it could grow more. “People who lived in the U.S. return to Mexico with new skills, technical knowledge and experiences that would help Mexico’s economy and society. The U.S. economy would receive the largest negative impact if around 4 million undocumented Mexicans plus some of their U.S. citizen family members were deported to Mexico. It would decrease economic output by close to 2 trillion dollars. “Based on previous studies conducted at the Immigration Lab, I calculate that the U.S. GDP would decrease by over 6.4% after the removals of Mexicans only have taken place. People from other parts of the would also be caught in the dragnets and deported, causing further economic contraction in the United States.” Trump-Vance transition team spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Newsweek: “President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families. “The American people reelected President Trump by a resounding margin, giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness. He will deliver.” Ram Ben Tzion, co-founder and CEO of the digital vetting platform Publican, told Newsweek: “Pushing the problem across the border is not going to make it disappear. The creation of large, displaced communities, of stateless and vulnerable populations from across Latin America, presents both a risk and an opportunity on two of the most important agendas of the new administration.” What Happens Next The president-elect is expected to sign a series of executive orders on “day one” of his administration focusing on mass deportations and border security. After regaining control of the presidency and Senate, along with the House, Trump and the GOP could face minimal resistance in enacting their immigration agenda.