Americans Predict A Difficult 2025

A majority of Americans are generally apprehensive about 2025, 56 percent expecting the country to experience “economic difficulty,” and 76 percent forecasting “political conflict,” according to a new survey. The annual survey of the year ahead was conducted by Gallup, who looked at a “nationally representative web survey” using its “probability-based panel” between December 4 and 15. Why It Matters Donald Trump will be inaugurated as president for the second time on January 20 2025. During his election campaign Trump made a number of dramatic promises, including pledges that he would “end inflation,” pay off “a tremendous amount” of the U.S. national debt and end the Russia-Ukraine war if he was returned to the White House. Following his comprehensive election victory of November 5, in which he picked up 312 Electoral College votes against 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris, Trump will be under pressure to show he can deliver on these promises. This will take place within a vociferously divided nation, according to a Gallup poll published in September showing a record 80 percent of American adults believing the nation was “greatly divided,” against just 18 percent who thought it was “united and in agreement.” What To Know Only 44 percent of Americans’ believe 2025 will be “a year of economic prosperity,” compared to 56 percent who expect “a year of economic difficulty,” according to the latest survey. Some 62 percent of Americans expect the federal budget deficit, which grew to over $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, to increase further in 2025 while 37 percent believe it will be reduced. In 2025, 61 percent of American’s believe China, the United State’s primary economic and geopolitical competitor, will “increase its power in the world” while 39 percent think it’s power will decline. Just 23 percent of Americans expect a “year of political cooperation,” against 76 percent who anticipate more conflict, while only 32 percent expect “a peaceful year, more or less free of international disputes,” and 67 percent forecast “a troubled year with much international discord.” A woman takes a photo in front of a 2025 luminous sign before a countdown event to celebrate the New Year in Seoul on December 31, 2024. Americans are generally anxious about the upcoming year… A woman takes a photo in front of a 2025 luminous sign before a countdown event to celebrate the New Year in Seoul on December 31, 2024. Americans are generally anxious about the upcoming year according to a new survey. JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/GETTY On several other key issues, Americans are more evenly divided, with 52 percent expecting 2025 to be “a year of rising crime rates” against 48 percent who think they will fall. Americans are split 50/50 on whether 2025 will see taxes rise or fall, while 52 percent believe the year will see the U.S. “increase its power in the world,” against 48 percent who expect this to decline. There are also some positive projections, 54 percent of Americans predicting “a year of full or increasing employment” versus 45 percent who think this will get worse, while 66 percent expect the stock market to rise over 2025. Notably there are very stark differences between self-described Republicans and Democrats, reflecting America’s current intense political division. Across 13 issues surveyed Republicans believe all but one will improve in 2025 according to the survey, while Democrats think all 13 will get worse. For example, just 19 percent of Democrats think America will “increase its power in the world” in 2025, compared to 90 percent of Republicans. Similarly, only 24 percent of Democrats expect crime to fall, compared to 81 percent of GOP supporters. What People Are Saying Speaking to Newsweek Mark Shanahan, an American politics expert who teaches at the University of Surrey in the U.K, said: “If Americans had wanted a conflict-free year at home and abroad, they wouldn’t have voted for Donald J Trump. He’s now the most known quantity in US politics and his whole offering to the public is disruption. He may spark a short-term economic spike at home, but that’s by no means guaranteed. “Abroad, the deal maker’s populist shtick may founder on the rocks of Chinese and Russian intransigence, while America’s ‘friends’ fight against his America First agenda. The majority are most probably right as we all prepare to ride out a very choppy year.” What Happens Next When he assumes office Trump will have to contend with ten major world conflicts, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the aftermath of rebels deposing former president Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Speaking to Newsweek Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, said she expects house prices to grow at around 2.2 percent in 2025, a fall from the three percent recorded in 2024.