US and Ally Draft Nuclear Weapons Rules Amid China, North Korea Threat

The United States and Japan have formulated their first guidelines for extended deterrence, which include the possible employment of the U.S.’s nuclear weapons, amid persistent threats posed to the security alliance by nuclear-armed China and North Korea. Newsweek contacted the Chinese Foreign Ministry and North Korean Embassy in Beijing for comment via email. Why It Matters Extended deterrence, commonly known as a “nuclear umbrella,” is a commitment made by the U.S. to deter and respond to scenarios—whether nuclear or nonnuclear—in defense of its allies and partners around the world, including Japan, South Korea, Australia and NATO member states. Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Defense released its assessment of Chinese military power, reporting that Beijing had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads, about 100 more than last year’s estimate. In June, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said North Korea, one of the nine nations armed with nukes, was estimated to possess 50 warheads in its nuclear arsenal, up from 30 warheads in 2023—which the institute said was a “significant increase.” The DF-41, a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile, on display during a military parade in Beijing on October 1, 2019. The United States and Japan have formulated their first guidelines for extended deterrence, commonly known as… The DF-41, a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile, on display during a military parade in Beijing on October 1, 2019. The United States and Japan have formulated their first guidelines for extended deterrence, commonly known as a “nuclear umbrella.” Kyodo via AP Images What To Know The guidelines for extended deterrence, which were announced by the U.S. State Department on Thursday, reinforces the existing extended deterrence consultation and communication procedures. Details were not disclosed, as they contained classified intelligence, Japanese newspaper The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Sunday. According to the statement, which the Japanese Foreign Ministry also published, in the face of an increasingly severe strategic and nuclear threat environment, the new guidelines addressed “strategic messaging to maximize deterrence and enhance measures for U.S. extended deterrence, bolstered by Japan’s defense capabilities.” The U.S.-Japan alliance will continue to explore how best to ensure extended deterrence is strong and credible, Washington and Tokyo said in the joint statement. According to The Yomiuri Shimbun, citing Japanese government sources, Japan can now convey its requests to the U.S. through the Alliance Coordination Mechanism to discuss issues regarding the U.S.’s possible use of nukes during normal times and contingencies. The guidelines are the first written statement to clarify that Tokyo can convey its views to Washington on this issue, the report added. However, the U.S. still has the final say on the authorization of using nuclear weapons, as the president possesses the sole authority. In July, the U.S. and Japan held their first “two plus two” ministerial meeting on extended deterrence in Tokyo. Since 2010, the allies have coordinated on this nuclear issue, primarily via the Extended Deterrence Dialogue. What People Are Saying The U.S. State Department and the Japanese Foreign Ministry: “The Government of Japan and the Government of the United States of America are committed to reinforcing extended deterrence in order to promote regional stability and deter the outbreak of conflict.” The Japanese Foreign Ministry: “Under the security environment surrounding Japan, which is becoming increasingly severe and uncertain at a remarkably rapid pace, it is indispensable to strengthen the Japan-U.S. Security Arrangements and to enhance the deterrence of the Japan-U.S. Alliance not only for the peace and security of Japan, but also for the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region.” What Happens Next China and North Korea are likely to continue the expansion of their nuclear weapons programs. It remains to be seen whether the U.S. military will deploy its nuclear-armed bombers and submarines to Japan, demonstrating its commitment to extended deterrence.